Saturday, 26 July 2008

Britain 'Heading For Recession'

The British economy is heading into recession, according to a member of the Bank of England committee which sets interest rates.

David Blanchflower, who sits on the Monetary Policy Committee, also warned that recent job losses could be "the tip of the iceberg".
In an interview in the Guardian newspaper, he said: "I think we are going into recession and we are probably in one right now."
He added: "We will probably have three or four quarters of negative growth, but the risks are to the downside.
"It's not too late to stop it, but we have to act right now. Monetary policy has been far too tight for too long. We can't just sit and do nothing as we have done for too long."
Mr Blanchflower, who lives in the US, was the sole committee member calling for a cut in interest rates in May and June.
But the Bank of England has held interest rates at 5% for the last three months after cutting them in April.
Minutes of this month's meeting will be published on Wednesday, but the academic economist seems certain to have repeated his call for lower rates.
Sky's business correspondent Joel Hills said: "If his forecasts are true, it would mean this recession, if it is one, would turn out to be worst than the five full-blown post-war recessions that we have seen, the last being in 1991.
Hills added: "This is all pretty gloomy stuff. However, bear in mind that he has been a lone voice on the panel for some time.
"He has been at odds with the prevailing consensus of the committee, which has been that the big problem isn't the slowing economy, it's rising prices."
Mr Blanchflower also said that house prices in Britain could fall by as much as a third and that the British economy could be facing a worse ride than even the US.

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